March Madness is a whirlwind of college basketball action, upsets, and buzzer-beaters. It’s a prime opportunity for sports bettors to cash in—but only if you’ve got the right strategies for those high-stakes first-round games. Whether you’re a die-hard NCAA hoops fan or just looking to throw some educated bets down during the madness, this guide will break down how to spot value in the early rounds.
Understanding March Madness First-Round Dynamics
The first round of March Madness is unlike anything else in sports. It’s 64 teams (well, technically 68) competing on a massive stage, which often leads to mismatches, close games, and historical upsets. College basketball betting insights are critical because betting strategies that work elsewhere may fail in this unique environment.
Key Trends to Watch
- Underdogs Often Cover the Spread: Historically, the No. 10 and No. 11 seeds have given higher seeds a run for their money. While outright wins aren’t guaranteed, these underdog teams often cover the spread, offering value for smart bettors.
- Overlooked Matchups: Think beyond the no-brainer picks. For example, games involving No. 8 vs. No. 9 seeds often have razor-thin margins in both odds and outcomes, making these competitive spaces for finding value.
- Small School Bias: Don’t dismiss smaller programs. Teams without big-school branding can deliver major upsets, especially when powered by standout players or high-paced styles.
A little betting trivia for you—did you know that a No. 12 seed has upset a No. 5 seed in 39 of the last 40 NCAA tournaments? These types of trends and insights are what can give you an edge when it comes to spotting value in March Madness games.
5 Strategies for Spotting Betting Value
1. Do Your Homework on Mid-Majors
Most casual fans focus on big-name teams like Duke or Kansas, but mid-majors often have hidden value. These squads fly under the radar but could feature veteran players or elite scorers capable of dominating a single-elimination stage. Check recent college basketball betting news, scout their season performance, and don’t be afraid to back them.
2. Track Advanced Metrics
Looking beyond traditional stats can help you predict outcomes more accurately. Advanced analytics, such as efficiency ratings, rebounding percentages, and strength of schedule, can uncover potential values or traps that others may overlook.
3. Factor in Travel and Neutral Venues
March Madness games in the first round are played at neutral sites, which can level the playing field more than you realize. Teams traveling long distances may struggle compared to those staying closer to home. This subtle edge can be a game-changer when betting spreads or over/under.
4. Beware the Public Bias
Public money during March Madness often leans heavily toward big-name schools, inflating their betting lines. If a household name like Kentucky is set against a lower-tier squad, the value lies with the smaller program covering the spread. Resist betting on the hype and identify odds that don’t reflect the competitive balance.
5. Leverage Live Betting Opportunities
With all the in-game swings during March Madness, live betting presents serious opportunities. Do you have a favorite team that’s down early? Their moneyline odds will spike—giving you higher potential payouts if they rally. For wagers, betting options like the FanDuel NCAAB offer great opportunities to capitalize on the madness and gain insights into teams’ current form to make savvy betting moves throughout the tournament.
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
While the strategies above set you up for success, there are also a few traps to steer clear of:
- Betting Blindly on Big Favorites: Teams like No. 1 seeds typically blow out their first-round opponents, but the spreads can be massive (think 20+ points). Covering such large lines is historically difficult.
- Ignoring Injuries: Even one key player out can derail a game plan, especially for smaller schools.
- Overloading Your Parlay Picks: Parlays are tempting, but loading them up might cost you. Focus on fewer, smarter bets for a better success rate.
Take Your Bets to the Next Level
March Madness is all about upsets, last-second drama, and highlight-reel performances. By applying the strategies above and staying sharp, you’ll spot valuable opportunities—and have a lot more fun in the process.
Want to start now? Check out FanDuel NCAAB for cutting-edge tools, odds, and promotions tailored just for March Madness bettors.
